Analyzing the Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Unemployment in West Sumatra

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the differences in the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) based on education level in West Sumatra Province during the 2020–2025 period, focusing on comparisons between education levels from elementary school down to university to identify patterns, trends, and unemployment dynamics from a macroeconomic perspective. Furthermore, this study examines the development of the TPT at each education level and identifies the level of unemployment vulnerability between highly and low-educated workers, especially in the context of changing economic conditions during the pandemic and post-pandemic. This study also examines the possibility of a mismatch between the education system and labor market needs that could potentially increase unemployment rates. The method used is a descriptive quantitative approach utilizing secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of West Sumatra Province, which is analyzed comparatively to see differences in the TPT between education levels and using trend analysis and simple time series based on two observation periods each year, namely February and August. The results of the study show that the TPT tends to be higher in the middle and high education groups, especially vocational school, diploma, and university graduates, while the low education group has a lower and relatively stable unemployment rate due to the high absorption of labor in the informal sector, so that policies are needed that are able to integrate education with the needs of the labor market.